Primer for pols (1)

ENQUIRY
DEMAREE J.B. RAVAL

Primer for pols (1)
Monday, 09 28, 2009

I am somewhere in the mountains of Central Asia, feeling cold to the bone from the icy winds, while attending to an assignment with the UN that occasionally takes me out of the Philippines. As I write this, I am also experiencing an unusual surge of homesickness. I miss my pinakbet, my family and my granddaughter.

And I miss the antics and gimmicks of the politicians as they jockey into position in preparation for the 2010 elections. In the past, I had been a witness to this periodic national pastime, and had seen how candidates have filled the air with speeches and, vice versa, their speeches with airs. And it has never failed to amaze me that a considerable number of candidates have been elected because they have managed to fool the people most of the time by their speeches and public declarations. I will probably regret having written this column, but this is a primer of sorts for candidates who want to fool the people this time around, and in a perverse way, a warning to them that they cannot fool the people all of the time.

So, dear candidate, here goes:

1.) Assert yourself. You don’t even have to be aggressive in order to be assertive. All you have to do is make a low-key but exuberant or frisky statement and present it as a fact. Don’t worry if your statement is by all standards not necessarily true. Just bear in mind that your assertion does not need any explanation or supporting logical or empirical back-up. All you need is to imply that what you are spouting is God’s own solemn truth and nothing but. Be like that assistant secretary who asserted that the impending victory in the 2010 polls of the administration candidates is a given, a reality, an established fact. The target of this tactic is expected to agree to this claim without taking the bother of searching for additional information or underlying reasons to support the claim. When you make an assertion, however, be prepared for the ugly public reaction of being labeled as a purveyor of lies and falsehoods.

2.) "Get on our wagon." Appeal to the voter to follow a trend, to join in because a great many others are doing so as well. From cigarettes to fashion to politics, bandwagon propaganda has been effectively employed by deft practitioners of spin, as it tends to convince the subject that one side is the winning — or the better — side, because more people have joined it. In the case of election campaigns, the poor are duped into believing that since so many people have joined the bandwagon, victory is predestined and defeat is out of the question. Since the average person doesn’t want to be associated with a loser, he is compelled to join in. A newspaper (not The Daily Tribune) may have unwittingly or unwittingly created a bandwagon effect among the voters when it bannered that more solons (do politicians really deserve this noble appellation?) have joined the Noynoy-Mar camp. Never mind that these politicians might be actually rats deserting a sinking ship and do not wish to be sucked into the ensuing political maelstrom — what the rest of your targets out there are seeing is the spectacle of a seemingly discerning and righteous group of people who have weighed the pros and cons and have made the right decision. So why shouldn’t one not join them?

3.) Stack the cards in your favor. Present information that is positive to an idea or an accomplishment — and then omit information contrary to it. (Another term for this tactic is selective omission.) This tactic, indelicately called as mindf*ck by some practitioners, is extremely effective in convincing the public. For example, announce that a road project that you have successfully pushed through has greatly benefited the thousands of citizens whose homes and business establishments lie along the route, but forget to mention the millions of pesos you stand to gain because the development of that road project would benefit subsidiaries and friends that you control. Although the bulk of information that you divulge through this approach is true, make sure that it omits important information, especially when it is damaging to you. Tell them, for instance, that you have judiciously filed your statement of assets, liabilities and networth (SALN), but omit that item about the luxury apartment in California, USA, and anyway that one is the property of your rich wife. Just be sure you don’t have enemies out there who could blow you out of the water — or road, as the case may be — by exposing the whole unexpurgated truth.

4.) Hide behind glittering generalities. Make words such as democracy, honor, delicadeza, freedom and love of country parts of your active vocabulary. These are words pregnant with clear and definite denotations for everyone. In addition, these terms are linked to time-honored and highly valued concepts ingrained in the Filipino heart and mind since grade school. Use these words, therefore, as often as you could and wherever you could. You will be surprised that a great majority of the people will approve of you even without thinking, simply because of the highly charged concept that these terms evoke. For example, 37 years ago the Filipino nation was told that martial law had to be imposed "to preserve democracy," and the majority of the nation (more or less) agreed. The abstract idea of democracy had such a positive connotation because it was linked to a concept that Filipinos value, as opposed to the dark and frightening threat posed by leftists such as Jose Maria Sison and Company, and some politicians who had to be jailed for their views that undermined the social order.

(More next Sunday. Send your comments to djraval2001@yahoo.com)

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Seizing the day

ENQUIRY
DEMAREE J.B. RAVAL

Seizing the day
Sunday, 09 06, 2009

The Roman poet-satirist and literary critic Horace in his "Odes," said it first: "Carpe diem!" meaning, seize the day. And down the ages, the exhortation has been repeated, to urge someone to make the most out of the present. Seizing the day is about deciding, by taking advantage of the circumstances prevailing.

Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino has been seizing each day since Aug. 1. At the wake of his mother, he showed extraordinary calm and admirable grace, even when he, instead of offering a cold shoulder or an icy silence, made perceived political adversaries, the President and the Marcos children among them, feel that their presence was welcome. That gesture alone perhaps endeared him to the rest of the nation.

Noynoy could have said a mouthful during the wake and at the interment services, and the public would not have minded. But he remained the most taciturn Aquino all throughout, even when the outcry for him to take up the mantle left by his martyred father and sainted mother was already rising to a fevered pitch. Perhaps if there ever was a hint for the public to guess where Noynoy’s thoughts for the future lay, it had to come from his sister Kris. At the interment services, Kris said that she and Noynoy were both in a position to continue the public service and advocacies of their deceased parents, and that she would support Noynoy in his future political endeavors. It was virtually saying that the future is now.

Noynoy remained tight-lipped. It had to take the determined efforts of partymates and well-meaning opinion writers to confront Manuel "Mar" Roxas about the inevitable: The clamor for Noynoy to run was snowballing, the surge was relentless, and Mar must now give way.

Mar’s candidacy was not progressing at the pace everyone expected it to. Despite five years of hard work and the resources thrown into his campaign, Mar could not simply put a headlock on his party’s anointment. He was languishing in the surveys, and had dropped to fifth in a field of eight two days before he and Noynoy had arrived at a solution to the dilemma confronting the Liberal Party (LP). Mar just could not get everyone to his side: Lito Atienza and his group was a thorn; Kiko Pangilinan, another partymate, could barely hide his condescension of Mar and his preference for Noynoy.

On the other hand, it would be naïve for someone to think that Noynoy didn’t see it coming, meaning the withdrawal of Mar in his favor. He just didn’t crow about it. The million signatures urging him to run had been collected in record time. Every pundit worth his fearless forecast was urging Noynoy to grab the opportunity. Many politicians of circumstance, quick to seize on a winner when they see one, were trooping to Times Street to convince Noynoy to saddle up and get on his high, dark horse. Another political party even went to the extent of offering its reformist organization to Noynoy just in case the LP turns a deaf ear to destiny’s call for Noynoy. It was 1986 all over again, and the country was in the grip of the "yellow fever."

The taciturn Noynoy must have calculated his moves — a masterful stroke, if you ask me --- right down to the day he heeded, albeit hesitantly, destiny’s call. He did not wait out the 40-day period of mourning. Another 10 days would have tilted the equation in favor of Mar. An indecision on his part would have exposed a weakness that would not sit well with those looking for a decisive leader.

Noynoy is now reaping it all without lifting a finger, without saying a word of encouragement for those who want him to run. Everyone wants to give way to him. Governors Panlilio and Padaca have no qualms about yielding to Noynoy; the reformists are very clear as to who their choice is. Atienza said as much: he is ready to bring over a big faction in the LP to support Noynoy. Pangilinan said the same thing.

Noynoy the undeclared candidate is getting endorsements from all over. Everyone else has said Noynoy could be the unifying factor for the opposition. Former President Joseph Estrada had this to say: "I have always held the highest regard and admiration for Noynoy’s parents, the late Senator Ninoy and President Cory, and believe that Noynoy is most qualified to seek the presidency." Jojo Binay agrees. And despite his mother’s dream for him to become president too, Bongbong Marcos is endorsing Noynoy.

Noynoy is presently on a spiritual retreat, to give a very serious focus to the future, to fortify his political stock, and to listen — not talk with, as you-know-who does in crucial moments — to God. He has not appeared atat na atat, has not rushed headlong into declaring his acceptance of the challenge to lead, but is, instead, treading the deliberate and enlightened path. This is the brand of leadership that he could very well bring to the country: spiritually moored, carefully deliberate and rationally enlightened.

Noynoy knows very well that the nation is desperate for a rallying point for recovery from the morass we are in. He will seize the day, by formally accepting the draft after the mourning period for Cory.

And all Kris has to do is to mount the stage and drape the country anew with yellow. Any further taunts of Malacañang that Noynoy prove that he is his own man is to invite boredom and a sense of déjà vu.

q q q

The nation will not forget what Mar did to pave the way for Noynoy’s candidacy. He, too, seized day when he put on the mantle of decency with his selfless act of statesmanship, his call for "Country Above Self." For sure, Mar will be rewarded in 2013. And that augurs well for the LP: Imagine a 12-year reign for the party.


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What if.....

ENQUIRY
DEMAREE J.B. RAVAL

What if.....
Sunday, 08 30, 2009

... the presidential and senatorial elections next year both turn out to be a failure, meaning, there is no president-elect, no vice president-elect, and no twelve senators-elect at noon of June 30, 2010? Who will assume the position of Acting President, pursuant to Section 7, Article VII of the Constitution?

A lot of people would probably say: The President of the Senate, of course. That’s what the Constitutiional provision on succession provides. Right?

Wrong. Keep in mind that Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile will be running for re-election. Now, imagine, if you will, the possible case of him being not re-elected or, if he is, of him being not officially proclaimed yet as senator-elect as of noontime of June 30, 2010. Who then can be the Acting President? There will be no Senate President as yet to serve as Acting President; in which case, the Speaker of the House of Representatives will have to serve as Acting President. Right?

Wrong again. The problem here in this intriguing scenario is that at noon of June 30, 2010, there will as yet be no Speaker to speak of. Speaker Prospero Nograles shall have already served out his third straight term as member of the House of Representatives.

What to do then when this interregnum - this gap between the reign of a monarch and the rule of a truly elected president - happens?

To find the solution, let us go back to the Senate. Can the twelve incumbent senators whose terms will be ending on June 30, 2013, elect from among themselves a Senate President, who will then serve as Acting President under the not-too farfetched scenario mentioned above?

Let us assume for a moment that, through some workings of the law or an obscure precedence, these twelve senators can validly elect from among themselves a Senate President. But what if they are unable or unwilling to vote for one, each one of them being interested in becoming Senate President who has a chance at being Acting President?

So let us go back to the House of Representatives. For sure, there will be a similar mad scramble among members of the House to be elected Speaker. After all, who does not want to be known in the footnotes of history as Acting President even for a week or two?

What if the House elects a Speaker ahead of the Senate electing a Senate President? Will the Speaker at this instance be the Acting President?

What if both Houses of Congress fail to elect a Speaker or a Senate President, respectively?

At present, there is no law that governs the possibility of a a failure of elections. There must be one, as the Constitution itself calls for the enactment of such a law. Incidentally, Senator Loren Legarda has filed a bill addressing this nightmarish situation.

000—000

What if former President Joseph Estrada files his certificate of candidacy by November 30, 2009 for the position of president?

As sure as night follows day, a petition for disqualification will be filed against Estrada in the Comelec, and it will go all the way to the Supreme Court.

But what if the petition for Estrada’s disqualification is thrown out, with the Supreme Court stating , as it did in the case against the late Fernando Poe, Jr., that “[t]he better policy approach is to let the people decide who will be the next president, for on political questions, this court may err but the sovereign people will not. To be sure, the Constitution did not grant to the unelected members of this court the right to elect in behalf of the people”? Estrada will then slug it out, of course, with the eight other candidates for president. In all probability, with his lock on 20 percent of the voters, he will be elected.

What if Estrada is sought to be disqualified on the basis of his promise, as part of his conditional pardon, that he will not seek any elective office? Would he be able to claim—and prove—that his waiver was made under duress and, therefore, not valid?

And what would happen if Estrada is disqualified? Who will take his place as candidate for president of the Partido ng Masang Pilipino? Loren Legarda? Jojo Binay? Chiz Escudero?

And in the event that the disqualification comes after the Commission on Elections has already printed the 45 million ballots for the automated elections, what a logisitical nightmare it must be!

000 --- 000

What if Noynoy Aquino finally says: “Yes, I will run for president.” Will Mar Roxas, who has said there is no turning back, graciously give way? After all, an Aquino–Roxas team would be a much stronger pairing than a Roxas-Aquino tandem.

What if Mar refuses to do a Doy Laurel and does not give way? Will the already fragmented Liberal Party split further into smithereens, and the nation will be treated to a reprise of 1992, when the loser in the convention of the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino put up his own party to contest the presidency?

000---000

What if Chiz Escudero gets the nomination of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC). Will he strike a modus vivendi with the Arroyo Administration?

000---000

What if Kris Aquino aspires to be a senator of the land? The answer to this one is easy: She will surely win, and she will top the elections.

000---000

What if Lito Lapid runs for re-election as senator? Will the electorate, after six years, commit the same mistake they made in 2004?

000 ---000

What if President Gloria Arroyo runs for a congressional seat in Pampanga—and then loses? Which acacia tree along MacArthur Highway in Pampanga will be anointed on which to string the carcass of defeat?

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