DEMAREE J.B. RAVAL
What if.....
Sunday, 08 30, 2009
... the presidential and senatorial elections next year both turn out to be a failure, meaning, there is no president-elect, no vice president-elect, and no twelve senators-elect at noon of June 30, 2010? Who will assume the position of Acting President, pursuant to Section 7, Article VII of the Constitution?
A lot of people would probably say: The President of the Senate, of course. That’s what the Constitutiional provision on succession provides. Right?
Wrong. Keep in mind that Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile will be running for re-election. Now, imagine, if you will, the possible case of him being not re-elected or, if he is, of him being not officially proclaimed yet as senator-elect as of noontime of June 30, 2010. Who then can be the Acting President? There will be no Senate President as yet to serve as Acting President; in which case, the Speaker of the House of Representatives will have to serve as Acting President. Right?
Wrong again. The problem here in this intriguing scenario is that at noon of June 30, 2010, there will as yet be no Speaker to speak of. Speaker Prospero Nograles shall have already served out his third straight term as member of the House of Representatives.
What to do then when this interregnum - this gap between the reign of a monarch and the rule of a truly elected president - happens?
To find the solution, let us go back to the Senate. Can the twelve incumbent senators whose terms will be ending on June 30, 2013, elect from among themselves a Senate President, who will then serve as Acting President under the not-too farfetched scenario mentioned above?
Let us assume for a moment that, through some workings of the law or an obscure precedence, these twelve senators can validly elect from among themselves a Senate President. But what if they are unable or unwilling to vote for one, each one of them being interested in becoming Senate President who has a chance at being Acting President?
So let us go back to the House of Representatives. For sure, there will be a similar mad scramble among members of the House to be elected Speaker. After all, who does not want to be known in the footnotes of history as Acting President even for a week or two?
What if the House elects a Speaker ahead of the Senate electing a Senate President? Will the Speaker at this instance be the Acting President?
What if both Houses of Congress fail to elect a Speaker or a Senate President, respectively?
At present, there is no law that governs the possibility of a a failure of elections. There must be one, as the Constitution itself calls for the enactment of such a law. Incidentally, Senator Loren Legarda has filed a bill addressing this nightmarish situation.
000—000
What if former President Joseph Estrada files his certificate of candidacy by November 30, 2009 for the position of president?
As sure as night follows day, a petition for disqualification will be filed against Estrada in the Comelec, and it will go all the way to the Supreme Court.
But what if the petition for Estrada’s disqualification is thrown out, with the Supreme Court stating , as it did in the case against the late Fernando Poe, Jr., that “[t]he better policy approach is to let the people decide who will be the next president, for on political questions, this court may err but the sovereign people will not. To be sure, the Constitution did not grant to the unelected members of this court the right to elect in behalf of the people”? Estrada will then slug it out, of course, with the eight other candidates for president. In all probability, with his lock on 20 percent of the voters, he will be elected.
What if Estrada is sought to be disqualified on the basis of his promise, as part of his conditional pardon, that he will not seek any elective office? Would he be able to claim—and prove—that his waiver was made under duress and, therefore, not valid?
And what would happen if Estrada is disqualified? Who will take his place as candidate for president of the Partido ng Masang Pilipino? Loren Legarda? Jojo Binay? Chiz Escudero?
And in the event that the disqualification comes after the Commission on Elections has already printed the 45 million ballots for the automated elections, what a logisitical nightmare it must be!
000 --- 000
What if Noynoy Aquino finally says: “Yes, I will run for president.” Will Mar Roxas, who has said there is no turning back, graciously give way? After all, an Aquino–Roxas team would be a much stronger pairing than a Roxas-Aquino tandem.
What if Mar refuses to do a Doy Laurel and does not give way? Will the already fragmented Liberal Party split further into smithereens, and the nation will be treated to a reprise of 1992, when the loser in the convention of the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino put up his own party to contest the presidency?
000---000
What if Chiz Escudero gets the nomination of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC). Will he strike a modus vivendi with the Arroyo Administration?
000---000
What if Kris Aquino aspires to be a senator of the land? The answer to this one is easy: She will surely win, and she will top the elections.
000---000
What if Lito Lapid runs for re-election as senator? Will the electorate, after six years, commit the same mistake they made in 2004?
000 ---000
At present, there is no law that governs the possibility of a a failure of elections. There must be one, as the Constitution itself calls for the enactment of such a law. Incidentally, Senator Loren Legarda has filed a bill addressing this nightmarish situation.
000—000
What if former President Joseph Estrada files his certificate of candidacy by November 30, 2009 for the position of president?
As sure as night follows day, a petition for disqualification will be filed against Estrada in the Comelec, and it will go all the way to the Supreme Court.
But what if the petition for Estrada’s disqualification is thrown out, with the Supreme Court stating , as it did in the case against the late Fernando Poe, Jr., that “[t]he better policy approach is to let the people decide who will be the next president, for on political questions, this court may err but the sovereign people will not. To be sure, the Constitution did not grant to the unelected members of this court the right to elect in behalf of the people”? Estrada will then slug it out, of course, with the eight other candidates for president. In all probability, with his lock on 20 percent of the voters, he will be elected.
What if Estrada is sought to be disqualified on the basis of his promise, as part of his conditional pardon, that he will not seek any elective office? Would he be able to claim—and prove—that his waiver was made under duress and, therefore, not valid?
And what would happen if Estrada is disqualified? Who will take his place as candidate for president of the Partido ng Masang Pilipino? Loren Legarda? Jojo Binay? Chiz Escudero?
And in the event that the disqualification comes after the Commission on Elections has already printed the 45 million ballots for the automated elections, what a logisitical nightmare it must be!
000 --- 000
What if Noynoy Aquino finally says: “Yes, I will run for president.” Will Mar Roxas, who has said there is no turning back, graciously give way? After all, an Aquino–Roxas team would be a much stronger pairing than a Roxas-Aquino tandem.
What if Mar refuses to do a Doy Laurel and does not give way? Will the already fragmented Liberal Party split further into smithereens, and the nation will be treated to a reprise of 1992, when the loser in the convention of the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino put up his own party to contest the presidency?
000---000
What if Chiz Escudero gets the nomination of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC). Will he strike a modus vivendi with the Arroyo Administration?
000---000
What if Kris Aquino aspires to be a senator of the land? The answer to this one is easy: She will surely win, and she will top the elections.
000---000
What if Lito Lapid runs for re-election as senator? Will the electorate, after six years, commit the same mistake they made in 2004?
000 ---000
What if President Gloria Arroyo runs for a congressional seat in Pampanga—and then loses? Which acacia tree along MacArthur Highway in Pampanga will be anointed on which to string the carcass of defeat?
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