The RH factor

ENQUIRY
DEMAREE J.B. RAVAL

The RH factor
Wednesday, 08 26, 2009

Sen. Manuel Roxas II. despite the millions he has already poured into his traysikad infomercials, has yet to furiously pedal uphill to reach the top of the surveys.

It is not for want of highways and byways to traverse, so to speak. At every turn he has blown his horn against the Arroyo administration, mouthing expletives in the process and thus making himself the poster boy of those seething with anger against Gloria Arroyo and her minions who cannot seem to do anything right for the country.

Neither is it for want of paved (a)venues along which he could go free-wheeling at a dizzy speed. The Cheaper Medicines Law should have brought him closer to the consumers. When his traysikad ran over the Legacy conglomerate, the hundreds of thousands of those who were bilked of their dreams should have looked up to Roxas as their savior.

And neither is it for want of events that expose him to the warm and fuzzy embrace of public adulation. He was an ubiquitous presence in the deathwatch over former President Cory Aquino, and in the wake and funeral march that followed. And he even acted as traffic officer during the State of the Nation Address of President Gloria Arroyo.

So, what gives? Why the heck can’t Roxas seem to move up from first base to second if not third base now comfortably occupied by others less profligate in their resources in order to score a run in the presidential ball game?

On the other hand, Sen. Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino, a virtual rookie in the Liberal Party dugout before the death of Cory, appears to have been shoved into the playing field as designated hitter of team Liberal. This thunderous acclaim from both teammates and spectators, so to speak, has titillated the imagination of pundits who now see (to continue the baseball metaphor) that, according to the rules, the designated hitter — Noynoy — cannot be used for any other player but the pitcher — Mar Roxas in this instance.

Without much effort beyond the customary hard-to-get stance while weighing his options, Noynoy has suddenly become No. 1 in the batting order of his political party. His enormously popular sister Kris Aquino has not even said a word of endorsement, yet Noynoy appears to have gained the upper hand, relegating Mar to the vice-presidential slot. Just look at the media space alotted to the undeclared political path of Noynoy, urging him to run, and you get the feel that the pitcher has been rendered inutile by the designated hitter.

Our colleagues at the Kapihan sa Sulo call this phenomenon the "Reverse Hit," or the RH factor. They attribute this to the fate of Salvador Laurel in the run-up to the snap presidential elections in 1986. And they apply this to the sudden emergence of Cory from her reluctance to wage battle against Ferdinand Marcos in 1986.

Applied to Roxas, it simply means that the people do not go for those who try very hard to project themselves for what they are not; the effort at projection hits the people in the reverse. Translated into numbers, it means that for every voter convinced of the sincerity of Roxas in what he projects himself to be, two are hit the other way, repulsed by his efforts, and thereby look to other candidates. And as applied to Noynoy, it simply means that the people prefer those who are not too vociferous about their intentions; that people do not buy the hard-sell that is shoveled on them.

This is probably a reprise of the biblical adage that says those who humble themselves shall be exalted, and those who exalt themselves shall be humbled.

It does not help the cause of Roxas any that stalwarts of the LP like former Senate President Jovito Salonga proclaim their preference for a Mar-Noynoy tandem. These stalwarts comprise the minority, though they may have a more auidible voice but not necessarily a convincing one. But it is the numbers that always matter. The LP should dig deep into its nationwide membership, and see how they exactly feel. It is refreshing to hear other leaders of the LP — without indicating their preference of who should carry the LP banner — saying their party will go through the selection process. And when this presently fragmented party does, they should heed the words of Lito Atienza: "Only Noynoy can unite the LP."

The quest of Roxas for his party’s nomination is imploding. At this late stage where the filing of certificates of candidacy is just three months away, Roxas’s inability to equal or surpass, say, Estrada in the ratings game, despite the vast resources and efforts put in to achieve that goal, is making a lot of his supporters fidgety. Organized five years ago, the personal Roxas machinery has not reached even 50 percent of the provinces, cities and municipalities of the country. (I was in Ilocos Norte the other week, and I did not see, much less feel the palpable presence of a Roxas organization.)

Some say that Noynoy, similarly, does not have the same personal organization to rival that of Roxas’. But given the slow pace of the Roxas traysikad, which is now lumbering on the road with shaky gears, the magic of the Aquino name will capture within three months the critical mass of supporters that will propel the candidacy of Noynoy. Cory in 1986 had even a lesser time.

Not even the much hyped October wedding of Roxas to popular broadcaster Korina Sanchez will haul in the votes for Roxas. Expect the RH factor to work against him. He will invite only those who can be accommodated in church. How about the rest? There is nothing spontaneous about people’s presence in or around the church where a wedding is celebrated, but there is definitely something appalling and exploitative about repeated public discussion about the wedding, and it rubs people the wrong way.

Compare that to the spontaneous outpouring of support for the Aquinos at the deaths of Ninoy and Cory. Noynoy did not exploit it; neither did any member of his family. That is the same kind of outpouring that Noynoy will expect when he decides to run for president.


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